Weather-related disruptions are increasingly becoming a significant challenge for global air traffic management (ATM). As aviation continues to grow, the need to address the adverse impacts of weather on flight operations is becoming more urgent. The Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO) has underscored the importance of collaboration among airlines, airports, and Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) to mitigate these challenges. This article delves into the issue and explores potential solutions.
Rising Air Traffic Amid Growing Weather Challenges
In recent years, global aviation has seen substantial growth. For instance, in the second quarter of 2024 alone, there were 13.2 million flights worldwide. Regions like the Middle East and North America experienced double-digit increases in flight volumes, while other areas reported a growth of 6 to 9 percent.
However, this surge in air traffic has coincided with an increase in adverse weather events. While much attention is often given to how aviation impacts the environment, it is becoming increasingly clear that the reverse is also true—climate change is affecting air transport. Extreme weather events such as hurricanes, storms, and heavy rainfall are disrupting flight schedules, causing delays, and creating complex operational challenges for ANSPs.
A Case in Point: Hurricane Beryl’s Impact
One of the most striking examples of weather disrupting air traffic occurred on July 8, 2024, when Hurricane Beryl hit Texas. Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston’s major international hub, witnessed the cancellation of 973 flights due to the hurricane’s 140 km/h winds and nearly 12 cm of rainfall within a 24-hour period. The hurricane had already caused significant disruptions in the Caribbean, isolating islands that rely heavily on air connectivity for both economic and social reasons.
This event highlights the profound impact that extreme weather can have on aviation, especially when it comes to maintaining safe and efficient operations. ANSPs face the dual challenge of ensuring safety while also trying to minimize delays and disruptions.
Weather as a Leading Cause of Delays
In Europe, weather has become a major factor in en-route Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) delays. In 2023, for the first time, weather was cited as the primary cause of such delays. The summer of 2024 saw even more severe weather conditions, leading to a 40 percent increase in weather-related ATFM delays per flight compared to the same period in the previous year.
Simon Hocquard, Director General of CANSO, emphasized that the impact of adverse weather on the efficiency of operations is undeniable. During severe weather events like thunderstorms, ANSPs are required to reduce capacity by rerouting traffic to avoid affected areas. While delays are an inevitable consequence, the safety of aircraft remains the top priority.
The Issue of Flight Plan Adherence
Complicating matters further is the issue of flight plan adherence. In July 2024, EUROCONTROL reported a 65 percent increase in flights that did not adhere to their planned profiles compared to July 2023. This situation includes flights that were planned but not executed and those that were executed without proper planning. On average, 3,000 flights daily fell into this category.
This lack of adherence has a double-edged effect on air traffic control (ATC) capacity. Not only does it result in unused airspace capacity, but it also creates unpredictability in the network, forcing ANSPs to reduce declared capacity levels to manage the increased uncertainty. The result is a more challenging operational environment where maintaining safety and efficiency becomes increasingly difficult.
The Power of Collaboration: CADENA’s Success
To tackle these complex challenges, greater coordination and collaboration between all aviation stakeholders are essential. One of the most successful examples of such collaboration is CANSO’s CADENA platform (CANSO ATFM Data Exchange Network for the Americas). CADENA facilitates the sharing of information on factors affecting airspace demand and capacity among ANSPs, airlines, and airports.
Simon Hocquard explained that CADENA operates on a simple premise: by enabling ANSPs to share real-time information, all stakeholders can achieve enhanced situational awareness, leading to optimized air traffic management. CADENA has a proven track record of increasing safety and efficiency during contingency events such as severe weather and natural disasters.
For instance, during Hurricane Maria in 2017, the close communication facilitated by CADENA between affected states and stakeholders in Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas saved airlines over $1 million. This example underscores the value of collaboration in managing the challenges posed by adverse weather.
Europe’s ‘All Together Now’ Initiative
In Europe, a similar approach is being implemented through the ‘All Together Now’ campaign led by EUROCONTROL’s Network Manager. This initiative provides guidance on best practices for all operational stakeholders to follow to ensure efficient and optimal operations.
By fostering a collaborative approach, these platforms help mitigate the impact of weather on air traffic management, ensuring that safety and efficiency are maintained even under challenging conditions.
Conclusion: A Collaborative Path Forward
The growing impact of adverse weather on global air traffic management operations is a challenge that cannot be ignored. As climate change continues to influence weather patterns, the frequency and severity of weather-related disruptions are likely to increase.
However, the solutions are within reach. Through enhanced coordination and collaboration between airlines, airports, and ANSPs, the aviation industry can better manage these challenges. Platforms like CADENA in the Americas and the ‘All Together Now’ initiative in Europe are leading the way, demonstrating that by working together, it is possible to maintain safe and efficient operations even in the face of unpredictable weather.
Ultimately, addressing the impact of weather on air traffic management will require a concerted effort from all stakeholders. By sharing data, improving communication, and embracing innovative solutions, the aviation industry can continue to grow while minimizing the disruptions caused by adverse weather.
